Abstract：The rupee broke past 96 per dollar on Thursday morning for the first time in over two months, after the US Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points and signaled more tightening ahead. State-run banks were spotted selling dollars, likely on behalf of the RBI, and the currency pared its losses to trade with a small gain by mid-morning. At the interbank market, the rupee opened at 95.88, slid to 96.10 — down 19 paise from Wednesday's close — before recovering to 95.81, according to The Hindu. The breach of 96 is the first since July 24. Reuters, citing four traders, reported the RBI likely intervened on Thursday as the currency fell past the mark.
The rupee broke past 96 per dollar on Thursday morning for the first time in over two months, after the US Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points and signaled more tightening ahead. State-run banks were spotted selling dollars, likely on behalf of the RBI, and the currency pared its losses to trade with a small gain by mid-morning.
At the interbank market, the rupee opened at 95.88, slid to 96.10 — down 19 paise from Wednesday's close — before recovering to 95.81, according to The Hindu. The breach of 96 is the first since July 24. Reuters, citing four traders, reported the RBI likely intervened on Thursday as the currency fell past the mark.
ContentsThe Fed's 25 bps hike, its first in three years, took the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%. Most policymakers expect at least one more hike this year, Moneycontrol reported. Futures markets now price about a 50% chance of another hike in October, with three total increases priced in for this cycle.
A hawkish Fed strengthens the dollar. That's bad news for the rupee, already battered by crude oil above $105 a barrel and foreign outflows. FIIs offloaded ₹2,032.61 crore in equities on Wednesday, exchange data showed.
The dollar index was up 0.10% at 100.07. Brent crude eased slightly to $105.55 but stayed stubbornly high.
The rupee has now fallen for seven sessions in a row. Over the preceding six sessions, it lost 148 paise, or more than 1.4%, from its September 4 close of 94.43. Wednesday's close was 95.91, down 3 paise. This isn't a sudden crash — it's a slow bleed. The 96 level was the last psychological barrier traders were watching. It broke within hours of the Fed decision.
The RBI's playbook is familiar: state-run banks sell dollars on its behalf to cushion the fall. Four traders told Reuters they suspected such intervention on Thursday. The Hindu reported the rupee pared losses and traded with a 10-paise gain after suspected RBI action.
This intervention has limits. Persistent selling of dollars drains reserves. It also keeps USD/INR artificially supported — if the RBI steps back, the pair could jump quickly.
The Fed's move strengthens the case for the RBI to hike its repo rate when the Monetary Policy Committee meets in early October, Moneycontrol reported. That's the next big event for the rupee.
If the RBI hikes, it could support the rupee by narrowing the rate differential with the US. But it also slows domestic growth. The trade-off is real.
On Sensex rose 0.45% to 74,336.45 and Nifty to 23,118.60 — equities took the hike in stride. @sharealam2013 (758 followers) posted key levels: Nifty 23,118.60, Bank Nifty 55,794.75, Sensex 74,003.82. One post from @RupeeMindset (4,515 followers) veered off-topic, discussing retirement corpus — not directly relevant to the rupee's move.
No post directly confirmed the RBI intervention. That remains a trader-sourced claim, not official.
If you hold USD/INR positions, the 96 level is the line in the sand. A sustained move above it could open the way toward 96.30-96.50, said Amit Pabari of CR Forex Advisors, as quoted by Moneycontrol. That's a forecast, not advice — but it tells you where the market sees resistance.
For carry traders, a hawkish Fed means US yields stay higher, widening the interest rate differential. That could increase the cost of holding long rupee positions overnight. Watch the October MPC meeting — if the RBI hikes, that dynamic shifts.
Next key date: the RBI's MPC meeting in early October. Until then, oil prices and FII flows will drive the rupee. The 96 level is now broken — the question is whether it becomes resistance or a new floor.
Download the WikiFX app for the latest financial updates.
Knowledge pays at WikiFX.Every time you share a WikiFX article, you'll receive 50 Reward Points. Grow your rewards with every share and unlock exclusive gifts in the WikiFX Points Mall. Start earning today!
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission added SBCFX and related names to its unlicensed-entities alert list on 28 August 2026, identifying www.sbcfx.com. This SBCFX review separates that official warning from a user’s USD937 withdrawal complaint and the broker’s own payment terms. For Indian readers, Hong Kong licensing and permission to offer forex services in India are separate questions.
TenX Prime, a Saint Vincent and the Grenadines-based brokerage entity, has received numerous negative user reviews amid an alleged withdrawal denial, loss on PAMM accounts, and other trading concerns. WikiFX, a forex broker regulation inquiry tool, has already recorded 15 user complaints. These complaints have come from several regions, including Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan. In this TenX Prime review, we have investigated user comments and provided a regulatory framework that the broker operates under.
OROKU EDGE, a Saint Vincent and the Grenadines-based brokerage, is reportedly facing allegations from users worldwide, including those in South Asia. These allegations have raised user concerns regarding delayed withdrawals, pressure to deposit more to unfreeze withdrawals, losses due to high slippage, etc. Users have shared these allegations on broker review platforms such as WikiFX. This OROKU EDGE review examines user allegations and provides a thorough overview of the broker's regulatory status.
The Reserve Bank of India's special FCNR (B) deposit scheme pulled in about $127 billion from non-resident Indians — well over its initial $50 billion target. Banks are now scrambling to replace short-term borrowings with longer-term overseas funding, while critics say the true cost of the scheme could be enormous. The scheme, announced on 5 June and closed on 31 August, was designed to shore up forex reserves. But a thread by @sandeep_PT, with 67 likes, argues the RBI bears the risk of rupee depreciation on these deposits, making the hidden cost "very large." Banks offered unusually high interest rates, which will eventually fall on borrowers and shareholders. And the dollar inflows add huge rupee liquidity, forcing the RBI to absorb excess money — potentially raising government borrowing costs.
WikiFXWikiFXWikiFXWikiFXWikiFXWikiFXWikiFXWikiFXWikiFXWikiFX
