Monsoon 13% Short, US Yields Above 5%; India Faces Food, Fuel & Fertilizer Shortage Risks
India is being hit by four shocks at once, according to a post on X published on Tuesday night: food, fuel, fertiliser and finance. The four numbers behind it are the ones worth checking. Monsoon rainfall running about 13% below normal and the weakest since 2015. Crude oil near $100 a barrel. None of them has been confirmed. The post attributes the framing to External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. Nothing published about Jaishankar in the past 72 hours mentions a four-F warning. Treat the attribution as unverified. What is verifiable is the timing. The post went out hours before an RBI policy decision, with Brent already slipping below $100 and US equity futures sitting at records. That split matters more to a USD/INR position than the label does. The four numbers, one at a time Everything in this section comes from the post. Food. El Niño left this year's monsoon about 13% short, the weakest since 2015, which points to lower crop harvests. Fuel. The US-Iran war has kept crude
