Economist Warns That Tech Bubble Could Burst & Nasdaq Could Crash 72%

A dramatic market scenario is emerging from one economist's analysis of the US economy, with Henrik Zeberg warning that the Nasdaq 100 could first surge toward 39,000 before suffering a collapse of about 72 percent and returning to roughly 10,600 by 2027.

Zeberg, a Danish economist and macro strategist at Swissblock, predicted that that the US stock market could experience a final burst of speculative enthusiasm before economic weakness becomes impossible for investors to ignore. His scenario centres on what he describes as an increasingly fragile combination of an artificial intelligence boom and a sharply divided US economy.

Under his model, the Nasdaq 100 could climb between 37,000 and 39,000 by the end of 2026, representing an increase of roughly 32 percent from the level discussed in the report. The subsequent decline toward 10,600 would represent a fall of about 72 percent from the projected peak, placing the potential drawdown in the same broad historical conversation as the technology crash of the early 2000s.

Zeberg's argument is based on his own business cycle model, which he says successfully anticipated the 2020 downturn and avoided calling for a recession when recession fears were widespread in 2022. His latest analysis suggests that economic weakness may already be developing beneath headline figures that still appear relatively strong.

US employment data, for example, remained resilient in August, with payrolls rising by 162,000, while an Atlanta Federal Reserve estimate pointed to annualised third quarter GDP growth of 4.7 percent. Zeberg argues that such figures do not fully capture the growing divide between higher income households and lower and middle income consumers.

He points to several warning signs, including a decline in labour force participation, rising long term unemployment, weakness in the housing market and falling personal savings. Existing home sales dropped 2 percent in August, while the supply of homes available for sale remained elevated. The personal savings rate was also reported at about 3 percent in July, substantially below its level several years earlier.

Zeberg's projected market path consists of several stages. He expects a powerful rally to continue into late 2026, potentially followed by a sharp market peak during the final quarter. A severe selloff could then be followed by a temporary rebound in early 2027 before deeper economic weakness emerges.

For Malaysian markets, the implications would extend beyond US technology shares. A major American equity correction could affect global risk appetite, emerging market flows, the US dollar and regional currencies, including the ringgit and Bursa Malaysia's performance. Malaysian investors with exposure to US technology stocks, global funds or foreign currency assets could therefore find themselves watching Wall Street developments much more closely if volatility begins to spread across international markets.