The February jobs numbers are coming out Friday. Here's what to expect

The 2025 labor market has been generously described as “unstable,” with virtually no jobs growth and a slew of headwinds expected to conspire against it. In 2026, though, the buzzword seems to be “stable,” even though conditions seem to be largely the same.

The picture continues to be of a low-hire, low-fire climate, where companies are both reticent to lay off employees as demand continues to be strong, but also are leery of adding staff amid uncertainty over tariffs, inflation and geopolitics.

However, characterizations coming from Federal Reserve officials and market economists have grown at least a bit more optimistic — stressing the stability, if not the robustness, of the labor market.

The difference between this year and last? Expectations.

A prevailing belief is that with the clampdown on immigration and other factors holding back labor pool growth, a subdued hiring rate is fine — at least for now — and the current pace of job growth is adequate and even expected.

“We've actually been getting signs of the U.S. labor market showing some stability,” Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, said in a recent CNBC interview. Sahm, author of the oft-cited “Sahm Rule” that uses changes in the unemployment rate to forecast recessions, added that there's a need to “be very watchful” as “the fact that the hiring rate is so low does make us vulnerable.”

“We've actually got some good news as we came into the year in the labor market. But we do need to see the hiring rate pick up,” she added. “That has been kind of a mystery, how low hiring is given the fact that the U.S. economy is expanding.”