Does Gold’s Downside Bottom Out or Just Start?

Prices of gold and silver saw a large retreat four weeks ago just after I published the Negative Points of Buffetts Buying Gold-Mining Stocks. Trends of precious metals are seemingly simple but yet proved to be tricky.

As of this writing, spot gold prices have fallen from the all-time high of $2,075.00 to $1,853.50, a decline of 10.67%. Such a drop stems mainly from the upbeat expectations of financial markets on the available coronavirus vaccine, which pushes economic activities back on track. With the economy seeing the start of a pick-up, central banks unwind the pressure on monetary easing, thus gold prices are punished. Besides, as over ten countries have been delivering their gold reserves back from the U.S. and U.K., I suppose some countries are likely to dishoard gold for more cash amid the high gold prices, so as to ease their financial pressure in outbreak response.

The recovered U.S. dollar, of course, is the last factor depressing gold prices. Apart from the changes in the Fed‘s monetary policies, which have sent a rally to the greenback, the Fed officials also stated that the country’s interest rates would have a chance to rise early, fueling further gains for the DXY to breach above the $94 barrier. Moreover, considering the DXY outshines others at the expense of GBP and EUR, all the non-USD currencies, gold, and silver have seen varying degrees of correction.

In terms of catching gold prices, investors are recommended to eye the dollar rather than indiscriminately focusing on other topics. With the U.S. stocks remaining weak recently, the U.S. dollar has bottomed out due to the RSI divergence, which becomes another key affecting the dollars trends. The trends on the chart show that the current DXY is expected to reclaim the $95.716 level, putting correction pressures on gold prices and non-USD currencies in the short run. From my estimate, gold may challenge a lower level of $1,765.00 this time while the silver is highly like to further decrease to $19.648.