Dovish RBNZ Forward Guidance to Rattle NZDUSD Rate Rebound

New Zealand Dollar Talking Points

新西兰元谈话要点

The short-term rebound in NZD/USD appears to be stalling ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealands (RBNZ) Financial Stability Report as the exchange rate struggles to extend the recent string of higher highs & lows.

新西兰元/美元的短期反弹似乎在新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）金融稳定之前停滞不前报告显示汇率难以延续近期一系列更高的高点和低点。

Dovish RBNZ Forward Guidance to Rattle NZDUSD Rate Rebound

Dovish新西兰央行向前冲刺指数反弹率

The New Zealand Dollar attempts to retrace the decline following the RBNZ rate cut, but NZD/USD stands at risk of giving back the rebound from the monthly-low (0.6482) as the central bank endorses a ‘downward bias’ for the official cash rate (OCR).

The RBNZ may insist that ‘a lower path for the OCR over the projection period was appropriate’ amid the threat for below-target inflation, and the central bank may keep the door open to further insulate the economy as ‘a key downside risk relating to the growth projections was a larger than anticipated slowdown in global economic growth, particularly in China and Australia, New Zealand's largest trading partners.’

新西兰联储可能会坚持认为“在预测期内OCR的较低路径是合适的”低于目标通胀的威胁，央行可能会继续关注进一步将经济隔离为“与增长预测相关的主要下行风险是全球经济增长放缓，特别是在新西兰最大的贸易伙伴中国和澳大利亚。”

In turn, dovish remarks coming out of the RBNZ may rattle the New Zealand Dollar, and the central bank may continue to strike a cautious tone ahead of the next meeting on June 25 as Governor Adrian Orr is scheduled to speak over the coming days.

反过来，新西兰联储提出的鸽派言论可能会对新西兰元产生不利影响，央行可能继续罢工在6月25日的下一次会议之前，由于州长阿德里安·奥尔计划在未来几天发表讲话，他将保持谨慎的态度。

With that said, the rebound in NZD/USD may prove to be short-lived, with the broader outlook tilted to the downside as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap the upward trends carried over from 2018.

据说，新西兰元/美元的反弹可能会证明由于价格和相对强弱指数（RSI）突破了2018年以来的上涨趋势，因此昙花一现，前景更加倾向于下行。

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注册并加入DailyFX货币策略师Davi d Song LIVE有机会讨论潜在的贸易问题ups。

NZD/USD Rate Daily Chart

新西兰元/美元汇率每日图表

• NZD/USD appears to be tracking a descending channel after carving a triple-top, with the broader outlook capped by the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6930 (23.6% expansion) to 0.6960 (38.2% retracement).

  新西兰元/美元似乎在追随三重顶部的下行通道后，更广泛的前景受到斐波纳契重叠约0.6930（扩大23.6％）至0.6960（38.2％回撤位）的影响。

• However, the lack of momentum to break/close below the 0.6490 (50% expansion) to 0.6520 (100% expansion) zone brings the 0.6600 (23.6% retracement) to 0.6630 (78.6% expansion) area on the radar.

  然而，缺乏动力突破/收盘跌破0.6490（50％扩张）至0.6520（100％扩张区）带来0.6600（ 23.6％回撤位于雷达上0.6630（78.6％扩张区）。

• Next region of interest coming in around 0.6710 (61.% expansion) to 0.6740 (23.6% expansion), the former-support zone.

  下一个感兴趣的区域约为0.6710（扩张率为61.％）前支撑区域为0.6740（扩张23.6％）。

• Nevertheless, the bearish trends in both price and the RSI raises the risk for fresh yearly lows, with the next downside hurdle coming in around 0.6370 (50% retracement) to 0.6430 (78.6% expansion), which largely lines up with the 2018-low (0.6424)

  尽管如此，价格和RSI的看跌趋势都增加了新的风险每年的低点，下一个下行障碍e在0.6370（50％回撤位）附近上涨至0.6430（78.6％扩张），这主要与2018年低位（0.6424）