Gold Nears $4,300, Dollar Slides and Oil Stays Under Pressure

Markets moved on multiple fronts on August 5. Wall Street extended its record run on strong earnings and continued Nvidia momentum, while the US Dollar came under renewed pressure following a disappointing ADP employment report. That dollar weakness rippled across asset classes, lifting gold toward fresh highs and giving the euro room to test resistance — even as oil stayed capped by uncertainty over a temporary shipping arrangement through the Strait of Hormuz.

Dow Jones

The Dow extended its record-breaking rally, supported by another strong earnings season and continued gains in Nvidia. Shares climbed more than 3% after Elon Musk said SpaceX would exclusively use Nvidia processors for its future AI computing infrastructure. SpaceX itself plunged more than 13% following its first quarterly earnings report since June's listing. Alphabet declined 4% after announcing a restructuring of its AI divisions and confirming that Chief Scientist Jeff Dean will leave the company after 27 years.

Technically, the index reached a new record high around 54,750 before pulling back sharply. The broader trend remains firmly bullish, and the 54,200-54,000 area is expected to act as key short-term support. A push toward the psychological 55,000 level remains on the table. A decisive break below support opens the door toward 53,339.

Gold

Gold rallied sharply as a weaker US Dollar and lower Treasury yields boosted demand. The dollar sat close to a three-month low, making USD-denominated gold more attractive to overseas buyers, while the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near a one-week low. Investors continue to monitor Middle East developments for clues on inflation and the Fed's policy outlook.

Gold surged to $4,300/oz before showing clear signs of exhaustion. The broader trend remains bullish, but the market may retest $4,300 before entering a deeper short-term correction. The $4,300 area may offer a short opportunity targeting the $4,166 support level.

Oil

WTI edged lower after Iran and Oman reached an agreement on a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. The market remained cautious about the durability of the arrangement given its temporary nature. US officials continued to express confidence that a broader agreement with Iran could be reached soon. Downside pressure may be limited, however, after reports that Yemen's Houthi forces launched a missile attack on a Saudi oil tanker.

WTI remains under pressure around $76.09 resistance, approaching the $74.00 support area. With the broader trend bearish, prices may extend losses toward $70.00. A decisive break above $76.09 opens the path to $77.76.

Support: $74.00 | Resistance: $76.09

Dollar

The DXY weakened after July ADP showed private payrolls rose just 44,000 — well below the 70,000 forecast — signalling further moderation in the US labor market. The ISM Services PMI edged up to 54.1 but missed the 54.5 consensus. Inflationary pressures firmed, with Prices Paid climbing to 70.3 from 67.7, while the Employment Index fell to 47.4 from 51.2 — a soft signal ahead of Friday's NFP.

The DXY may retest 99.41 support in the near term. Even a rebound toward 100.00 could provide a short opportunity in line with the prevailing downtrend, though a decisive break above 100.00 could extend the recovery toward 100.46.

Euro

EUR/USD advanced as easing Middle East tensions and softer US data weighed on the greenback. Additional support came from a stronger Eurozone Services PMI, revised higher to 51.7 and confirming a return to expansion after three months of contraction — a marked improvement from June's 49.4.

The pair tested the prior high at 1.15591 before pulling back, but the broader uptrend remains intact. The decline appears corrective, driven by profit-taking from buyers entering near 1.15000. A pullback toward 1.15000 offers a fresh long opportunity.

Yen

USD/JPY traded broadly sideways despite dollar weakness, as investors digested the BoJ's June meeting minutes, which showed policymakers debating the need for further rate hikes. Governor Ueda has repeatedly said the central bank stands ready to continue normalising policy if conditions allow — supporting the yen.

USD/JPY advanced but lost momentum near 158.00 resistance. The pair may reverse lower toward the previous 156.00-155.00 lows. A decisive break above 158.00 could trigger a stronger recovery toward 161.00.