Marketmind: Communication breakdown

Marketmind: Communication breakdown

By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

The Fed, ECB, and BoE have spoken, and the market‘s message is: We hear you, but we don’t believe you.

All three raised interest rates as expected this week, said they will act again at upcoming meetings, and with varying degrees of guidance and conviction said they stand ready to tighten even further if inflation conditions warrant it.

But investors arent buying it. Wall Street and world stocks have jumped, bond yields are tumbling, and economists and rates futures markets are scaling back central bank hiking expectations.

Contrary to what policymakers are surely aiming for, financial conditions are easing. Look how Germany‘s 10-year bond yield reacted on Thursday to ECB president Lagarde’s press conference – down 20 basis points, one of the biggest falls since the euro was launched in 1999.

According to Goldman Sachs, U.S. financial conditions are the loosest since August and have eased 150 basis points since mid-October. Thats despite 225 bps of rate hikes since September.

The falling dollar and lower Treasury yields have helped loosen financial conditions across most of emerging Asia in recent weeks too. Regional risk appetite remains firm, even though a pause in the equity rally may be overdue.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index only has to rise around 0.7% on Friday – not an insurmountable challenge on the back of Wall Streets latest bounce – to post its sixth consecutive weekly gain.

That would mark 12 increases out of the last 14 weeks, while the MSCI World index has had only one down day in the last 10. Remarkable runs.

(Hang Seng tech index https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/byvrlkkyqve/HST.png)

Watch for outsized moves in Asian tech stocks on Friday following the 23% surge in Meta Platforms Inc shares. Apple, Amazon and Google parent Alphabet also reported results after the U.S. close.

On the economic data front, a batch of PMI reports will give the latest insight into the health of several key economies in Asia, including China and India, while December retail sales figures from Hong Kong and Singapore will also be released.

Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

– China Caixin services PMI (January)

– India S&P Global Services PMI (January)

– U.S. non-farm payrolls (January)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Deepa Babington)

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